I know you're all just dying to know who I'm picking for winners in tonight's Oscar race, right? Okay, maybe not. But still, I usually finish first or second in our annual picks contest that's been going on for 10+ years now, so even though I haven't seen most of the nominated movies (Oscar and I disagree on what makes for an essential theater-going flick), if you have a contest of your own to participate in, I offer these up as choices:
PictureBrokeback Mountain, because nothing can stop the momentum of the only one of the nominees this year that has entered popular consciousness (even if few people actually saw it).
DirectorAng Lee, Brokeback Mountain. See above.
ActorA rather weak slate this year, so I'll go with
Philip Seymour Hoffman in
Capote.
ActressEveryone says it's going to be
Reese Witherspoon for
Walk the Line, and who am I to argue?
Supporting ActorGeorge Clooney in
Syriana, because they'll want to reward him for something.
Supporting Actress
Conventional wisdom says that this is Rachel Weisz's, but this is the one category that typically goes against expectations, so I'm picking
Amy Adams in
Junebug.
Visual EffectsKing Kong. It has a giant monkey fighting dinosaurs, and how can anyone resist that?
Original ScreenplayAka the consolation prize, so it'll go to
Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco for
Crash.
Adapted ScreenplayLarry McMurtry & Diana Ossana for
Brokeback Mountain, because you can't stop the momentum.
MakeupThe Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe, mainly because
Cinderella Man and
Stars Wars Episode III are fit for an Oscar snub this year.
Art DirectionJohn Myhre & Gretchen Rau for
Memoirs of a Geisha, because it's the kind of movie that usally wins this category.
Original ScoreA tough one, actually, so I'll go with the mo' and pick
Gustavo Santaolalla for
Brokeback Mountain; even though he only wrote about 13 minutes of score music for the movie, it's the only one of the nominated scores where when you hear a few bars you instantly know what movie it's from. Plus the voters will want to reward Santaolalla for having been robbed of a best song nod due to an unfair rules ruling. Plus, the Academy has been snubbing John Williams for many years now.
Oringial Song"Travelin' Thru" from
Transamerica, because the voters like
Dolly Parton.
Live Action Short FilmI meant to watch a few of these through iTunes, but never got around to it this week. So I'll pick
Ausreisser (The Runaway), for no good reason other than it's a gut pick.
Animate ShortPixar's
One Man Band, because they're Pixar.
Animated FeatureActually three strong nominees this year, but I'll go with
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit.
Sound EditingKing Kong. Because if there's one thing this movie had, it was sound, and lots of it.
Sound MixingWalk the Line, because this category usually goes to musical bio-pics.
Film EditingA tough one, but
Crash, with it's interlocking stories, seems the correct pick.
CinematographyI'm going for the dark horse pick here:
Emmanuel Lubezki for
The New World.
Foreign Language FilmTsotsi from South Africa has gotten the most ink, so since hardly anyone actually goes to see these it'll probably take the statue.
Documentary FeatureConventional wisdom is to not go with any film that anyone has actually heard of in this category, but I think the trend will be bucked this year and
March of the Penguins with waddle away with the golden statue.
Documentary ShortGod Sleeps in Rwanda sounds like the title of a film that typically wins this category.
Costume DesignJacqueline Durran for
Pride & Prejudice, because period pieces nearly always win this category.
So those are my picks. We'll know in 11 hours or so how good they are...